The polls predict a turnout model far too favorable for Obama.
The current electorate is made up of 36.9 percent registered Democrats, 33.3 percent registered Republicans and 29.8 percent independent voters. This is based on current and recent survey data from the various QStarNews polls and surveys.
Because of higher enthusiasm levels on the Republican side, the actual makeup of the voters that participate in the 2012 election is projected to be 36.4 percent Democrats, 36.1 Republicans and 27.5 percent independents. From this electorate, the popular vote is projected to be 51.4 percent for Romney and 47.9 percent for Obama.
What if we applied that same rationale to the swing states?
|New Hampshire||49.0||47.0||Romney win|
|North Carolina||50.5||46.5||Romney win|