1) Romney is the clear front runner in the national polls.
More revealing, in the past week’s 40 national surveys, Mr. Romney was at or above 50% in 11, with Mr. Obama at or above 50% in one. Mr. Romney leads 48.9% to 46.7% in an average of these surveys.
2) Romney’s favorability is going up.
In an Oct. 21 Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll of registered voters, Mr. Romney was viewed favorably by 49% and unfavorably by 39%, up from 41% favorable and 40% unfavorable on Sept. 16.
3) Obama is below 50% in most of the battleground states.
An incumbent president’s final number in opinion polls is often his Election Day share of his vote. Undecided voters generally swing the challenger’s way. So if Mr. Obama goes into Nov. 6 below 50% in these states—as he now is in almost every one—he is likely to lose them and his chance at a second term.
4) Romney has the momentum and numbers he needs.
This race will be close, depending on a few states. The good news for Mr. Romney is that the ones he needs are breaking his way. He leads in most recent polls in Florida, North Carolina, Virginia, New Hampshire and Colorado.
That puts the former Massachusetts governor at 261 in the Electoral College with Iowa, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and the great prize, Ohio, still up for grabs. In those states, Mr. Obama has at best a thin edge, while Mr. Romney has momentum, a stronger argument, and time to grab the nine additional electoral votes he needs.