In an interview with Bill O’Reilly, Dick Morris stated with confidence that Romney was going to win all or most of the battleground states. This means Romney would win in a landslide.
Here are the flaws with the polls as he sees them.
- Registered voters. Just because a voter is registered doesn’t mean they are likely to vote. In fact, the enthusiasm of Obama voters is so low that Romney would get an edge if you narrowed the field down to those certain or likely to vote.
- Sampling of black voters. Blacks made up 14% of the vote in 2008 and only 11% in 2004. If you oversample this demographic, you’d be giving Obama extra points. According to Morris, they are being oversampled by about 2 points.
- McCain states. None of the states won by McCain in 2008 are at risk of going to Obama. NONE. Therefore all of the battlegrounds states are for Romney to make up ground.
- Undecideds. Undecided voters are likely to go against the incumbent.
Many of these battleground states are close races and for the four reasons above, Romney may actually have a significant lead.