Pollsters are wrong when lumping the entire youth vote together. He argues that the 18-29 group should be split into two subgroups: 18-24 year olds and 25-29 year olds.
He says the 25-29 year olds have a vested interest in Obama’s success because they were duped into voting for him in 2008. And he argues that many of the 18-24 year olds were not paying attention in 2008 and can see Obama for what he really is.
The youth vote can tend to be very mobilized but how mobilized are a group of 25-29 year olds going to be when they have no prospect for jobs in this economy?