If you were shocked by the latest ABC/Washington Post pool that shows Hillary creating a 12-point lead with likely voters after the latest debate last Wednesday, then you need to look a little closer. This poll was “embargoed for release after 9 a.m.” EST on Saturday, which made it a dominant topic of conversation on all the morning talk shows.
O course, like several polls from the likes of Reuters, ABC and The Washington Post, something strange emerges when you look beneath the surface of the headline 12-point lead.
With huge variances in preference across demographics one can see how simple it is to rig a poll by over indexing to one group vs another. While the pollsters release the split of the sample pool by political affiliation, they don’t share the split by any of the following demographics, which are just as important to determining the outcome of the poll.
“METHODOLOGY – This ABC News poll was conducted by landline and cellular telephone Oct. 20-22, 2016, in English and Spanish, among a random national sample of 874 likely voters. Results have a margin of sampling error of 3.5 points, including the design effect. Partisan divisions are 36-27-31 percent, Democrats – Republicans – Independents.”
This means that only 27% of the people who were polled are Republicans.
Via Zero Hedge:
As we’ve pointed out numerous times in the past, in response to Reuters’ efforts to “tweak” their polls, per the The Pew Research Center, at least since 1992, democrats have never enjoyed a 9-point registration gap despite the folks at ABC and The Washington Post somehow convincing themselves it was a reasonable margin.
Rush Limbaugh weighed in on the suspicious outlier poll that came out on Saturday night: “I don’t care what network you watch, maybe with Fox exempted, although certain places at Fox you’ll find the same sentiment. It’s over. And they all cite these polls. They all cite the polls that show Hillary up 10 to 12 points. And even take the low point at 10, I just saw somebody on CNN, a conservative Republican say, “At 10 points with two weeks it’s over, there’s no way you can reverse that, it’s history.”
So they all believe the polls. In fact, their belief in the polls is biblical. I think these people have a greater confidence and faith in the polls than they do in the Bible. So it’s over. And, furthermore, to show you just how over it is, the Democrats are actually now in red states where Trump may win those states, but they’re in there and they’re working down the ballot and they’re gonna win back the House, they’re gonna win back the Senate, and Chuck-U Schumer is gonna end up a majority leader in the Senate.
And you Republicans, you are toast, do you understand? You Republicans, it’s toast, and you Republicans had better start doing your postmortems right now, and you had better starting figuring out why this happened. You lost this because you saw to it that Trump was nominated, and if you weren’t for Trump, you better find out who made it possible for Trump to be nominated, and you better do something about those people.”
Americans who are tired of a corrupt media and corrupt politicians should ignore these polls. Instead of wasting time reading them, Americans should be knocking on doors and contacting friends, explaining why it is important to vote.